Andy Burnham's victory in Makerfield makes him Labour leader and prime minister in waiting. How will the next days and weeks play out?

Keir Starmer has said he will stand in a leadership contest if one is triggered. So does that mean a bloody contest rather than a coronation?

In a special episode recorded live on Times Radio with Ed Vaizey, we go through the possible scenarios.

And if Andy Burnham does become prime minister, what will he do with power? Who will be in his cabinet? We're told that Shabana Mahmood has turned down the offer of chancellor and will stay as home secretary. Is Ed Miliband still a likely candidate for chancellor? And what to do about Wes Streeting?

We also look at the Conservative win in Aberdeen South. Is this a green shoot for the Conservative Party?

And will the Makerfield result prompt some soul searching in Reform UK?

Ed Vaizey, presenter, Times Radio

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Harry Kitson, Erin Carney

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

00:00 - Intro: "They’re Going to Have to Drag Him Out"

00:20 - Welcome to The State of It: The Makerfield Shockwave

00:56 - An Extraordinary Result: How Andy Burnham Defied Political Gravity

03:00 - "Vote Burnham, Get Starmer Out" Campaign Strategy

04:05 - Keir Starmer Strikes Back: Leadership Contest or Coronation?

06:37 - Starmer's Response: "I'm Not Going to Walk Away"

07:14 - Inside Starmer's Bunker: Refusing an Orderly Transition

09:16 - The Secret List: 80+ MPs Backing Andy Burnham

11:06 - Nigel Farage's Disappointment: Reform UK Share Drops

12:00 - Kemi Badenoch's Tories Resurge in Scotland

13:04 - Did Reform UK Choose the Wrong Candidate?

14:04 - The Identity Schism Deepening Inside Reform UK

16:00 - What Does an Andy Burnham Premiership Actually Stand For?

17:48 - Tax Overhauls: Radical Land Tax vs. Council Tax

18:38 - The NATO Summit and the Defense Investment Plan Dilemma

21:00 - Tough Decisions on Welfare Cuts and Benefits

23:16 - The Power Brokers: Louise Haig & Anneliese Midgley

24:40 - Cabinet Secrets: Ed Miliband vs. Shabana Mahmood

27:12 - Shabana Mahmood’s Hardline Immigration Reforms

28:22 - Wes Streeting's Defiance: Forcing a Platform Battle?

32:38 - What Happens to the Hardcore Starmer Loyalists?

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

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Makerfield is the most consequential by-election in history. Andy Burnham is confident he'll win. What happens then? When and how does he make a move? What can Keir Starmer do to thwart him? We have several scoops for you today.

Listen to find out which cabinet ministers are thinking of resigning after Makerfield and which senior figure has been ghosting the PM.

If Andy Burnham does get to Number 10, the whole direction of his premiership will depend on who he picks for his cabinet. We bring you the latest on what his team is thinking.

And of course it's also possible that Reform UK could beat Labour in Makerfield — what then?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Video editor: George Clare

Picture credit: Getty Images

Audio: Times Radio

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Exclusive stories from the front line of the government's war over defence spending.

And there's a swagger about Andy Burnham's team: they're more and more confident that he'll win in Makerfield. What happens next? And how will the enmity between Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer influence the outcome?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

Email us: thestateofit@thetimes.co.uk

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

• Nigel Farage has said that the death of Henry Nowak is proof that "we’re living in a two-tier culture...where the rights and privileges of white people matter less than those of ethnic minorities". Police bodycam footage shows Nowak, 18, being arrested for alleged racial abuse minutes before he died from stab wounds in December 2025. It's a tragedy that's very quickly become political. We explain why it's an issue that's particularly tricky for Labour to respond to.
• Also, a snapshot of strange by-election campaign where cabinet members are not welcome, Labour MPs might be allowed a selfie with Andy Burnham (if they're lucky), and the future of the country is decided upon by a tiny group of people in a club where they hold auctions of exotic birds.
• And what the Mandelson files tell us about the Labour Party – and about Patrick Maguire Syndrome.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Henry Nowak with his father, Mark (Family handout/PA)

Audio: PA, ITV

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the Makerfield by-election, Reform UK have put forward a local plumber in the hope of derailing Burnham’s push for power — but a string of deeply questionable old social media posts has left the campaign wobbling. Meanwhile, on Reform’s right flank, Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party is threatening to split the vote after a Sunday Times poll put them on 7% — enough to potentially hand Labour the advantage.

Back in Downing Street, Rachel Reeves is machine-gunning her colleagues. The question is whether she genuinely believes she can survive in post under an Andy Burnham leadership.

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture credit: Getty Images

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

• Scoop: Keir Starmer thinks he can remain prime minister till 2027, even if Andy Burnham wins in Makerfield...And if Burnham loses, what then?
• Fear and loathing in Number 10: we have details about the extraordinary levels of anger at the top of government.
• Makerfield is the most consequential by-election in history. Can Andy Burnham win in this pro-Brexit, anti-establishment seat? He's pitching himself as the anti-politics candidate, while simultaneously plotting his route to Downing Street.
• And if he does win, what will he do with power? Could he end up as a Keir Starmer in running shorts?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture credit: Getty Images

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wes Streeting has resigned as health secretary, but he hasn't launched a leadership challenge. Why not? More than 90 Labour MPs have now called for the prime minister to go, but Keir Starmer is hanging on. What can he do now? And what's the next move for Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture credit: Getty Images

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

An extraordinary day in British politics: Keir Starmer vows to fight on, but the resignations keep on coming. How long can the prime minister survive? What's next, and who will move first? Wes Streeting has one shot: will he take it? What is Andy Burnham's plan?

Recorded at Temple Church as part of the Fleet Street Quarter Festival of Words.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Gabriel Pogrund, editor of Insight, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture credit: Getty Images

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.