Makerfield is the most consequential by-election in history. Andy Burnham is confident he'll win. What happens then? When and how does he make a move? What can Keir Starmer do to thwart him? We have several scoops for you today.

Listen to find out which cabinet ministers are thinking of resigning after Makerfield and which senior figure has been ghosting the PM.

If Andy Burnham does get to Number 10, the whole direction of his premiership will depend on who he picks for his cabinet. We bring you the latest on what his team is thinking.

And of course it's also possible that Reform UK could beat Labour in Makerfield — what then?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Video editor: George Clare

Picture credit: Getty Images

Audio: Times Radio

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Exclusive stories from the front line of the government's war over defence spending.

And there's a swagger about Andy Burnham's team: they're more and more confident that he'll win in Makerfield. What happens next? And how will the enmity between Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer influence the outcome?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

Email us: thestateofit@thetimes.co.uk

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

• Nigel Farage has said that the death of Henry Nowak is proof that "we’re living in a two-tier culture...where the rights and privileges of white people matter less than those of ethnic minorities". Police bodycam footage shows Nowak, 18, being arrested for alleged racial abuse minutes before he died from stab wounds in December 2025. It's a tragedy that's very quickly become political. We explain why it's an issue that's particularly tricky for Labour to respond to.
• Also, a snapshot of strange by-election campaign where cabinet members are not welcome, Labour MPs might be allowed a selfie with Andy Burnham (if they're lucky), and the future of the country is decided upon by a tiny group of people in a club where they hold auctions of exotic birds.
• And what the Mandelson files tell us about the Labour Party – and about Patrick Maguire Syndrome.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Henry Nowak with his father, Mark (Family handout/PA)

Audio: PA, ITV

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.