Episodes

  • Why Bond Yields Are Rising Despite Slowing Jobs Data

    Why Bond Yields Are Rising Despite Slowing Jobs Data
    Jul 1 2026
    The bond market and the jobs market are sending mixed signals. On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the June ADP payroll miss — just 98,000 private jobs added, well below expectations — even as the ten-year Treasury yield climbs toward four and a half percent. They explore what's driving the disconnect: sticky core services inflation, the Fed's elevated interest on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, and a labor market that remains tight by historical standards despite the headline softness. The hosts also examine the recent surge in jobless claims before they dropped back to 215,000, and what falling job openings above 7.5 million tell us about employer reluctance to lay off workers. Drawing on the latest CPI and PCE data, this episode cuts through the noise to answer one question: if the economy is cooling, why aren't bonds rallying? #ADP #NonfarmPayrolls #BondMarket #TreasuryYield #TenYearYield #FederalReserve #InterestOnReserves #CoreCPI #CorePCE #Inflation #JobsReport #LaborMarket #JOLTS #MacroEconomics #FedPolicy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 mins
  • Why the Bond Market Is Ignoring Sticky Inflation

    Why the Bond Market Is Ignoring Sticky Inflation
    Jul 1 2026
    Core PCE has been stuck above 3 percent for months, yet the 10-year Treasury yield is falling. Lucas and Luna dig into the data to explain why bond traders are betting the Fed wins the inflation fight anyway, and what the breakdown between real yields and breakevens is signaling about the economy's direction. #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #Inflation #CorePCE #FederalReserve #RealYields #BreakevenRate #Economy #Macro #Investing #InterestRates #GDP #JobsMarket #FOMC #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • The S&P 500 at 7500 What History Says About Market Peaks

    The S&P 500 at 7500 What History Says About Market Peaks
    Jul 1 2026
    On July 1, 2026, the S&P 500 closed above 7,500 for the first time, with the NASDAQ hitting 26,214 and the Dow at 52,319. Lucas and Luna dig into what this milestone actually means for investors — beyond the headline. Lucas walks through historical data: the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio is now hovering around 22, above the 25-year average of 19.5, but still below the dot-com peak of 31. Luna notes that the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.42%, falling 7 basis points over the past week, which suggests the bond market is not screaming 'bubble.' They debate whether this rally is driven by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks or more broad-based, referencing the small-cap Russell 2000's more modest 1.3% weekly gain. The episode closes with a discussion of what level of P/E might actually signal a real peak — and a quick, sincere mention that listener support via Buy Me a Coffee keeps the show ad-free. #S&P500 #NASDAQ #DowJones #Russell2000 #PEratio #10YearTreasury #StockMarketPeak #MarketMilestone #Valuation #HistoryRepeats #Bubble #BullMarket #TechStocks #SmallCaps #YieldCurve #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 mins
  • What Falling Jobless Claims Signal for Summer Hiring

    What Falling Jobless Claims Signal for Summer Hiring
    Jun 30 2026
    Initial jobless claims dropped to 215,000 in mid-June, the lowest level in months. Lucas and Luna unpack what this number actually means for the labor market—whether it signals tighter conditions or just seasonal noise. They contrast the claims drop with the still-elevated unemployment rate of 4.3 percent and discuss what the Fed sees in these crosscurrents. Specific data points include the five-week moving average, continuing claims trends, and how the claims drop fits into the broader picture of slowing hiring but low layoffs. No hot takes—just a grounded look at one of the most real-time indicators the Fed watches. #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #Unemployment #InitialClaims #Hiring #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedPolicy #SummerHiring #ClaimsDrop #LaborForce #WageGrowth #NonfarmPayrolls #ContinuingClaims #EconomyWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 mins
  • How Rising Labor Force Participation Reshapes the Job Market

    How Rising Labor Force Participation Reshapes the Job Market
    Jun 30 2026
    Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising trend that's reshaping the U.S. job market: labor force participation is creeping higher even as the unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent. With nonfarm payrolls at 159 million and job openings jumping to 7.6 million, they explore why more people entering the workforce isn't the sign of weakness some think it is. Drawing on recent JOLTS data, wage growth holding at $37.50 an hour, and the Fed's 3.63 percent rate, they unpack how this dynamic is keeping the economy in a sweet spot — and why it might complicate the Fed's next move. A focused look at the participation puzzle that most headlines are missing. #LaborForceParticipation #Economics #JobMarket #UnemploymentRate #JOLTS #NonfarmPayrolls #WageGrowth #FederalReserve #FedPolicy #Inflation #LaborMarket #ParticipationRate #EconomicData #Macroeconomics #JobsReport #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 mins
  • How Wages Are Rising Without Adding to Inflation

    How Wages Are Rising Without Adding to Inflation
    Jun 29 2026
    Average hourly earnings just ticked up to $37.50, but core PCE inflation is stubbornly at 3.4%. Lucas and Luna unpack a paradox that has economists divided: wage growth that isn't feeding price spikes. They trace the disconnect through productivity data, sectoral shifts, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A close look at whether the labor market can keep delivering raises without reigniting the inflation that central bankers fear most. #WageGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve #CorePCE #LaborMarket #Productivity #AverageHourlyEarnings #Economics #FedPolicy #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo #LucasAndLuna #HourlyEarnings #PriceStability #JobMarket #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • The Growing Gap Between Core CPI and Core PCE

    The Growing Gap Between Core CPI and Core PCE
    Jun 29 2026
    In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the widening divergence between core CPI and core PCE inflation. Core CPI hit 336.1 in May, up 3.4% year-over-year, while core PCE sits at 130.1 with a 2.8% annual rate. Lucas explains why the Fed focuses on PCE — it accounts for substitution effects and covers more goods — and why the gap matters for rate expectations. They discuss what the data means for the Fed's next move as the effective fed funds rate holds at 3.63% and the 10-year breakeven inflation dips to 2.20%. A tight episode for anyone tracking the real inflation picture beyond the headlines. #CoreCPI #CorePCE #InflationGap #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #FedFundsRate #BreakevenInflation #ConsumerPriceIndex #PersonalConsumptionExpenditures #USInflation #Economics #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #DailyEconomics #LucasAndLuna #InflationData #RateCuts Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 mins
  • Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Falling Despite Sticky Inflation

    Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Falling Despite Sticky Inflation
    Jun 28 2026
    The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped sharply over the past week, even as core inflation remains stubbornly above 3 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the paradox: bond markets are pricing in a growth scare, not an inflation victory. They examine the recent 10-year breakeven rate slipping to 2.20 percent, the yield curve inversion deepening, and what the divergence between the 2-year and 10-year yields signals about recession risk. The hosts also discuss how the Fed's next move might be shaped by falling long-term rates rather than rising inflation. A data-driven look at what the bond market is telling us about the economy that equity markets haven't priced in yet. #TreasuryYield #BondMarket #YieldCurve #Inflation #FederalReserve #RecessionRisk #BreakevenRate #CoreInflation #EconomicGrowth #GrowthScare #InterestRates #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LucasAndLuna #Podcast #MarketData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 mins