Why Bond Yields Are Rising Despite Slowing Jobs Data

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Why Bond Yields Are Rising Despite Slowing Jobs Data

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The bond market and the jobs market are sending mixed signals. On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the June ADP payroll miss — just 98,000 private jobs added, well below expectations — even as the ten-year Treasury yield climbs toward four and a half percent. They explore what's driving the disconnect: sticky core services inflation, the Fed's elevated interest on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, and a labor market that remains tight by historical standards despite the headline softness. The hosts also examine the recent surge in jobless claims before they dropped back to 215,000, and what falling job openings above 7.5 million tell us about employer reluctance to lay off workers. Drawing on the latest CPI and PCE data, this episode cuts through the noise to answer one question: if the economy is cooling, why aren't bonds rallying? #ADP #NonfarmPayrolls #BondMarket #TreasuryYield #TenYearYield #FederalReserve #InterestOnReserves #CoreCPI #CorePCE #Inflation #JobsReport #LaborMarket #JOLTS #MacroEconomics #FedPolicy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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