Episodes

  • Why the Fed Is Watching the Yield Curve Uninversion

    Why the Fed Is Watching the Yield Curve Uninversion
    Jun 15 2026
    The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch in modern history. But in recent weeks, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury spread has narrowed to just a few basis points. On this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack what a potential uninversion means for the Fed's next move. They discuss the historical track record of curve uninversions as recession signals, why this cycle's inversion has been so stubborn, and how the current data — including a 4.47% 10-year yield and a Fed funds rate at 3.62% — is reshaping the policy debate. Plus, a look at how the ECB's recent rate hike and sticky core CPI are complicating the picture. If the curve normalizes this summer, does it mean the soft landing is real — or is it just the calm before the storm? #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #TreasuryBonds #RecessionSignal #SoftLanding #Inversion #ECB #CoreCPI #BondMarket #Economics #FOMC #Inflation #CentralBanking #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 mins
  • Why the Fed Is Watching the Small-Cap Rally Right Now

    Why the Fed Is Watching the Small-Cap Rally Right Now
    Jun 15 2026
    The small-cap index is up 3.1% in the past five days, and the Fed is paying close attention. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the rally in the Russell 2000 matters for monetary policy—especially when the ten-year yield is falling and energy-driven wholesale inflation is running hot. They walk through the historical signal in small-cap leadership, what it says about credit conditions and recession odds, and why this week's move might be more about rate-cut hopes than genuine economic strength. Lucas also shares a behind-the-scenes look at how Fexingo stays ad-free. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the Fed's next move off the market's small-print signals. #SmallCapRally #Russell2000 #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #WholesalePrices #EnergyPrices #TenYearYield #CreditMarkets #RecessionSignals #FOMC #RateCuts #MarketLeadership #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 mins
  • What the Fed Makes of the Small-Cap Rally Right Now

    What the Fed Makes of the Small-Cap Rally Right Now
    Jun 14 2026
    The Russell 2000 is up over 3% in the last five days while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq drift sideways or dip. Lucas and Luna dig into why small caps are suddenly outpacing large caps, what the Fed sees in this rotation, and whether it signals genuine confidence in a soft landing or just a short-covering bounce in the most battered corner of the market. They look at the rate picture: the ten-year yield has slipped to 4.49, the two-year is at 4.21, and the Fed funds rate sits at 3.62 — a steep but narrowing yield curve that historically favors smaller companies. They also connect it to the May CPI reading of 4.2% year-over-year and the wholesale price surge, asking whether the Fed can afford to let this rally run without tightening further. A grounded, number-driven conversation about what the rotation into small caps really tells us about the path of monetary policy. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #SmallCaps #Russell2000 #YieldCurve #SoftLanding #CPI #InterestRates #FOMC #Rotation #MarketStructure #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #PodcastEpisode #MarketAnalysis #Macro #Finance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 mins
  • How the Fed Is Reading the May CPI Spike

    How the Fed Is Reading the May CPI Spike
    Jun 14 2026
    In episode 51 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down what the Fed actually focuses on in the May CPI report — not the headline 4.2% number making the news, but the shift in core services ex-housing and the unexpected jump in used car prices. They connect the inflation data to the Fed's neutral rate debate, the ECB's rate hike, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up to 2.31%. Lucas explains why this CPI print complicates the Fed's path to cutting rates, while Luna pushes back on whether one month of data should change the outlook. A focused conversation on what the Fed's models are picking up right now. #FederalReserve #CPI #Inflation #MayCPI #CoreServices #UsedCars #NeutralRate #ECB #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #BreakevenInflation #InterestRates #Economics #Macro #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 mins
  • The Fed's New Focus on the Neutral Rate

    The Fed's New Focus on the Neutral Rate
    Jun 13 2026
    With the effective fed funds rate at 3.63% and inflation running hot at 4.2%, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky question: how high is 'high enough'? In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the neutral rate of interest — R-star — has become the Fed's obsession in mid-2026. They explore how the post-pandemic economy, energy shocks, and structural changes have likely pushed R-star higher, complicating the FOMC's tightening path. Drawing on recent data including the ten-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.31% and the surprise ECB rate hike, they explain why estimating the neutral rate is more art than science — and why getting it wrong could either keep inflation too high or choke off growth. A focused look at the one number that might matter most to the Fed right now. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #NeutralRate #RStar #InterestRates #FOMC #Inflation #Economics #CentralBanking #FedFundsRate #ECB #BreakevenRate #CPI #EnergyShocks #TighteningCycle #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 mins
  • The Fed's Quiet Watch on the UK Economy's Shrinkage

    The Fed's Quiet Watch on the UK Economy's Shrinkage
    Jun 13 2026
    In episode 49 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into a single, surprising data point: the UK economy shrank 0.1 percent in April, even as global energy prices surged and the ECB hiked rates for the first time since 2023. They explore why the Fed is quietly watching this—not out of sympathy for Britain, but because UK inflation expectations often lead US ones by about six months. With the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate creeping up to 2.31 percent and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.62 percent, the hosts ask whether the UK's contraction could be a harbinger of a similar trade-off for the US: higher energy costs leading to slower growth, not just sticky inflation. They reference the latest PPI and CPI prints, the small-cap rally, and the flattening yield curve to question whether the Fed is underreacting to global supply shocks. A fresh, cross-border perspective on what the Fed is actually reading in its morning briefing. #FederalReserve #FOMC #UKEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #CoreCPI #BreakevenInflation #GlobalTrade #EnergyShock #ECB #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #CentralBanking #YieldCurve #SmallCaps #SupplyShock Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • What the Fed Makes of the ECB Rate Hike

    What the Fed Makes of the ECB Rate Hike
    Jun 12 2026
    Episode 48 of The Federal Reserve Podcast examines the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026 — its first since 2023 — and what it means for the Fed. Hosts Lucas and Luna break down how the Iran conflict is driving energy costs, pushing ECB to act while the Fed stays patient. They explore the divergence in monetary policy, the impact on the dollar and U.S. import prices, and what Fed Chair Powell might signal at the next FOMC meeting. With core PCE still above target and wholesale prices surging, the episode connects global events to domestic rate decisions. Specific data points include the ECB hike, the 1.1 percent jump in May wholesale prices, and the 4.2 percent annual CPI reading. Listeners will understand why the Fed can't ignore ECB moves, especially when energy shocks cross borders. A candid look at central bank interdependence in a tense geopolitical climate. #FederalReserve #ECB #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #IranConflict #EnergyCosts #Inflation #CorePCE #WholesalePrices #CPI #FOMC #CentralBanks #DollarStrength #GlobalEconomy #RateHike #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 mins
  • What the Fed Makes of the ECB Rate Hike

    What the Fed Makes of the ECB Rate Hike
    Jun 12 2026
    Episode 47 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo examines how the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026—the first since 2023—changes the calculus for the Federal Reserve. Lucas and Luna break down the energy-price shock behind the ECB's move, why it pressures the Fed to stay hawkish, and what the 10-year breakeven inflation drop to 2.29% says about market expectations. They also connect the ECB decision to the May CPI print of 4.2% annual inflation and the Fed's current stance at 3.62% effective rate. A focused analysis of central-bank interdependence in a conflict-driven energy crisis. #FederalReserve #ECB #RateHike #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #EnergyCrisis #IranConflict #CPI #BreakevenInflation #FOMC #InterestRates #CentralBanking #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Fexingo #FedPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 mins