"P(doom) is a Dumb Meme" by Max Harms

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"P(doom) is a Dumb Meme" by Max Harms

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Look, I'm as much of a Rationalist with a special interest in AI x-risk as anyone. But oh my god do I hate talking about "P(doom)". When it first started showing up in the wake of ChatGPT, I assumed that it was floating around variously adjacent circles of faux-intellectuals, but surely everyone in my circles could see how braindead it was... right?

(This post was partially inspired by a recent conversation with Liron about Doom Debates.[1])

I guess it's time for me to focus on a place where I'm shocked that everyone else is dropping the ball.[2]

P(doom) is Hopelessly Vague

Let's start with the ambiguity. Does "doom" mean... extinction? A lot of people think so! I have personally encountered people who think catastrophic harms from AI are likely, but the risks of all humans dying are low. They're like "Sure, 99.999% of humans might die from AI, but the AI will obviously want to keep thousands of humans alive for science and potential trade with aliens and stuff, so my P(doom) is approximately 0%."

That might sound crazy. Surely you, dear reader, know exactly what "doom" means. You know, for example, which of these count as doom and [...]

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Outline:

(00:45) P(doom) is Hopelessly Vague

[... 4 more sections]

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First published:
June 29th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6h7aAd4aw8YgCAbF6/p-doom-is-a-dumb-meme

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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