In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s deputy Sahel director Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim to discuss a major wave of coordinated attacks by the al-Qaeda affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Tuareg rebels across Mali. They examine how the offensive unfolded, including the killing of Mali’s defence minister and the fall of the strategic northern city of Kidal. They discuss the nature of the renewed cooperation between JNIM and Tuareg separatists, JNIM’s goals and evolving tactics, and what the attacks mean for the junta’s hold on power and Russia’s role as Bamako’s security partner. They also look at how, on one side, the Burkina Faso and Niger military authorities and, on the other, coastal West African states are responding amid strained relations between the Sahel’s military-led governments and ECOWAS and consider where the crisis may be headed.

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For more, check out our report “Understanding JNIM’s Expansion Beyond” the and our Mali page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Iraq, Lebanon and Syria director Heiko Wimmen about the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and what might come next. They discuss the damage caused by the latest round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, with thousands dead and over a million people displaced, mostly from Shia-majority areas in the south, and the situation in Lebanon now. They examine how the Israeli military operations differed across Lebanon and the emergence of a de facto buffer zone to prevent Hezbollah’s return to areas near the border. They talk about how the latest ceasefire came about and how it is perceived among different Lebanese communities. They also assess the state of Hezbollah, how far Israel has weakened the group, its changing relationship with Iran and how the latest fighting has affected support among the group’s Shia base. Finally, they discuss what could cause the ceasefire to unravel and what can be done to shore it up.

Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our weekly Iran Crisis Monitor and our Lebanon page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna and Stephen Pomper to discuss the announced ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the U.S. and what might follow. Richard first asks Ali why Iran agreed to a ceasefire, decision-making in Tehran and Iran’s approach to the Islamabad talks. He then speaks with Yasmine about Gulf reactions to the ceasefire, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and divergent Gulf Arab positions on the negotiations. Richard and Mairav then discuss how Israel views the ceasefire as operations continue in Lebanon and whether Israelis see the war as a success so far. Finally, Richard turns to Michael and Steve to discuss Trump’s threats against Iran, the frantic diplomacy behind the ceasefire, the risk of renewed escalation and what recent weeks reveal about the erosion of international law.

For more, check out our Middle East & North Africa page.

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