In this episode of Relative Return Insider, Olivia Grace Curran speaks with AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver about key global market and economic developments.

They discuss Middle East tensions and their impact on oil and equity markets, the surge in major IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI, and what this means for investor sentiment. The conversation also covers the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia, inflation pressures, and the likely direction of interest rates in Australia and the U.S.

Finally, they explore how major sporting events like the FIFA World Cup are increasingly intertwined with global capital and economic activity.

A fast-paced breakdown of the forces shaping markets right now - from geopolitics to IPO hype and central bank decisions.

In the latest episode of Relative Return, journalist Olivia Grace-Curran speaks with Ben Samuel and Ky Van Tang from First Sentier Investors Group about the shifting macro landscape, the outlook for rates, and why investors are increasingly revisiting cash strategies.

The discussion begins with an overview of the business, the scale of the team, and the firm's approach to managing cash and income portfolios in a higher-rate environment.

Samuel and Van Tang then unpack some of the biggest themes shaping markets today, including the Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation-growth balancing act, how geopolitical tensions are complicating policy decisions, and what investors should be watching ahead of the next RBA meeting.

The episode also explores:

• Risks emerging across the banking sector
• AI-driven layoffs and loan quality concerns
• Whether issues around underwriting standards and loan fraud are systemic
• Why cash is becoming increasingly attractive in portfolios
• The different avenues investors are using to gain exposure, including TDs, cash accounts, ETFs and managed funds
• The evolution of cash investing and First Sentier Investors Group's upcoming ETF launch

In this episode of Relative Return, Olivia Grace-Curran speaks with Haran Karunakaran from Capital Group about the changing role of fixed income in portfolios.

They discuss whether bonds still provide diversification benefits, why higher yields are driving renewed interest in traditional fixed income strategies, and how active management can uncover opportunities across global markets. The conversation also explores the rapid growth of private credit and the risks investors should be watching.

Tune in for insights on building resilient portfolios in today's evolving investment landscape.

This week on Relative Return, Lonsec Deputy Head of Research Darrell Clark breaks down the fund manager's research framework and assessment processes, explaining how this translates into determining the winners for Money Management's upcoming Fund Manager of the Year Awards.

Darrell delves into the highly competitive nature of the funds management sector and how recognition through industry awards plays into Lonsec's benchmarking system, as well as how it can impact relationships with financial advisers.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Olivia Grace-Curran speaks with AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver to unpack the latest developments in global and Australian markets. They discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest minutes and what they signal for interest rates, the surprise jump in unemployment to 4.5%, and what it means for the RBA's next move.

The conversation also explores key inflation trends, consumer spending resilience, and the outlook for household activity heading into the next policy meeting. Beyond Australia, Shane examines rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their impact on oil markets, including the Strait of Hormuz and shifting supply dynamics.

This week on Relative Return, AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver breaks down one of the most controversial federal budgets in years - from sweeping changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, to what it all means for inflation, interest rates, housing, and business confidence.

Shane says the budget is effectively adding more stimulus into an economy already struggling with inflation pressures, warning it could make the Reserve Bank's job harder and increase the likelihood of another rate hike later this year.

The conversation dives deep into the winners and losers of the budget, with first-home buyers, shares, super and commercial property tipped as relative beneficiaries, while property investors, startups and growth businesses could face new challenges.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Olivia Grace-Curran sits down with AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver to unpack the Reserve Bank's latest rate hike, the inflation outlook, geopolitical risks and what it all means for investors navigating an increasingly volatile environment.

Oliver says the RBA's third consecutive rate hike reflects growing concern that inflation could become entrenched, particularly amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the continued closure risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. While he believes rates are either at or near their peak, he expects at least one more hike could arrive later this year before cuts begin in 2027.

• Oliver warns a prolonged blockage of the Strait could trigger a more severe stagflationary shock for Australia and the global economy.
• Australia's heavy reliance on imported fuel exposes broader vulnerabilities in national energy security and supply chains.
• The Australian dollar has strengthened as the RBA continues tightening while other central banks remain on hold.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford speaks with AMP chief economist Shane Oliver about the March quarter CPI figuresand what it means for interest rates, households and markets.

Shane breaks down how the impact of headline inflation jumping to 4.6 per cent over the year to March, largely driven by a surge in fuel prices linked to the US–Iran conflict, and the likelihood that the RBA moves to hike rates at its May meeting.

Tune in to hear:

• Whether the RBA is better off acting now, or if the prior hikes could cause a pause.
• How the ongoing US-Iran war and its shifting ceasefire deadlines is feeding into further inflation.
• The impact of the AI boom and US tech giants powering US profit growth on markets.