Is the U.S. economy heading toward stability, or just navigating a new kind of volatility?

In this episode of Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution, Kevin Brown and Tom Burton are joined by Taylor St. Germain, Senior Economist at ITR Economics, to unpack the forces reshaping wholesale distribution and manufacturing. From interest rate uncertainty and tariff refund chaos to AI adoption gaps and “profitless prosperity,” this conversation connects macroeconomic signals directly to distributor margin strategy, capital investment decisions, and long-term growth planning.

What You’ll Learn:

• Why the current economy feels like a “tale of two economies”, and how income distribution impacts demand across B2B markets
• What the Federal Reserve is really watching (core inflation vs. trimmed mean metrics) and how rate decisions could affect CapEx, M&A, and working capital
• How tariff policy, Section 301 and 232 rulings, and refund uncertainty are influencing distributor pricing strategy and customer relationships
• What “profitless prosperity” means for 2026 and 2027, and how to protect margins during growth at a higher cost
• Why most AI initiatives in wholesale distribution are still efficiency plays—and what separates hype from scalable, repeatable AI-driven business processes

Episode Highlights:

• 03:30 – Inside ITR Economics: forecasting accuracy, leading indicators, and preparing for downturns
• 11:45 – May jobs report surprises: what strong hiring means for inflation and rate decisions
• 14:20 – Interest rate outlook: hold, cut, or increase—and why energy prices complicate the Fed’s move
• 30:18 – Tariff escalation, Section 301 and 232 policies, and the ripple effect across distributors
• 41:03 – Tariff refunds: unintended consequences for margins, pricing transparency, and customer trust
• 58:26 – AI adoption in wholesale distribution: efficiency gains vs. true strategic transformation
• 1:16:35 – “Growth at a higher cost”: how to navigate labor inflation, electricity costs, reshoring, and fiscal pressure

Meet the Guest:

Taylor St. Germain is a Senior Economist and Business Consultant at ITR Economics. He delivers economic keynotes nationwide and helps manufacturers and distributors identify leading indicators, forecast demand, and prepare for economic cycles with a 94.7% forecasting accuracy standard.

Tools, Frameworks, and Strategies Mentioned:

• ITR Economics leading indicator forecasting models
• Weekly GDP tracking vs. lagging government metrics
• Trimmed mean inflation vs. core CPI
• Enterprise Growth Platform by LeadSmart Technologies
• AI-driven margin protection and data unification strategies

Closing Insight:

“We are very optimistic about growth, but it’s growth at a higher cost.”

The second half of the decade presents opportunities for wholesale distributors and manufacturers, but only for those who actively manage labor inflation, tariff exposure, electricity costs, and AI investment discipline. Growth is not the question. Margin strategy is.

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Is wholesale distribution entering its most disruptive era yet?

In this episode of Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution, Kevin Brown, Tom Burton, and Mark Gilham of Enable unpack the forces reshaping the B2B supply chain: inflation measurement debates, Federal Reserve strategy, tariff refund accounting risks, buying group consolidation, maritime trade choke points, and the growing influence of AI on distributor–manufacturer relationships. This episode explores how data-driven decision making is shifting the industry from relationship-based instinct to AI-powered commercial intelligence, and what that means for distributors, manufacturers, CFOs, and industry leaders.

What You’ll Learn:

• The difference between core inflation vs trimmed average inflation, and why the metric matters for CFO planning, pricing strategy, and capital investment decisions
• How a more flexible Federal Reserve approach impacts interest rate modeling, debt refinancing, and working capital strategy in wholesale distribution
• Why tariff refunds create accounting, tax, and downstream pricing pressure, and how distributors and manufacturers should prepare
• The real impact of global maritime choke points like the Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, Panama Canal, and South China Sea on supply chain resilience
• Why buying groups like Evergreen are consolidating, and how rebate economics drive churn and competitive pressure
• How AI could disrupt traditional distributor–manufacturer relationships by prioritizing margin analytics, pricing optimization, and product substitution models over loyalty

Episode Highlights:

• 03:22 – Mark Gilham explains how Enable connects manufacturers and distributors through rebate and pricing intelligence
• 11:45 – Core inflation vs trimmed average inflation: what’s the difference and why does it matter for distributors?
• 24:41 – A Greenspan-style Fed strategy: how rate uncertainty changes business forecasting
• 42:30 – Tariff refund accounting risks and downstream pricing pressure across the supply chain
• 57:45 – The six global maritime choke points and why “just-in-time” models increase fragility
• 1:00:41 – Why Evergreen shut down and what buying group consolidation means for distributors
• 1:14:42 – Manufacturers’ growing concern: will AI override decades of channel relationships?
• 1:23:48 – “It all depends on the brief the AI has.” How AI configuration shapes profitability and channel outcomes

Meet the Guest:

Mark Gilham is a former distributor CFO and now a leader at Enable, a pricing and rebate management platform focused on helping manufacturers and distributors trade more intelligently in the B2B ecosystem. His expertise bridges finance, pricing strategy, rebate optimization, and AI-driven commercial execution.

Tools, Frameworks, and Strategies Mentioned:

• Enable Rebate Management and Pricing Intelligence
• LeadSmart Enterprise Growth Platform
• Revenue Expander white space analytics
• Prediction market data modeling for interest rate forecasting
• AI-driven commercial optimization and margin normalization models

Closing Insight:

“Future decisions are not going to be made based on a relationship. They’re going to be made based on what the AI model tells the distributor.”

As wholesale distribution evolves, the competitive edge will belong to organizations that combine trusted relationships with structured data, commercial intelligence, and AI-ready infrastructure.

Leave a Review: Help us grow by sharing your thoughts on the show.

Learn more about the LeadSmart AI B2B Sales Platform: https://www.leadsmarttech.com/

Join the conversation each week on LinkedIn Live.

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A lot of business leaders talk about “uncertainty,” but on today's episode, we talk about exactly where it comes from and how it hits your P&L.

We start with real-world takeaways from the recent convention in Nashville and conversations with distribution technology leaders, then connect the Middle East conflict to the Strait of Hormuz and other global supply chain choke points that quietly control fuel prices, freight capacity, and commodity availability. When that lane tightens, distributors feel it everywhere: inbound costs, delivery expense, lead times, and customer patience.

From there, we bring it back to the shop floor reality. Global growth forecasts are getting cut, manufacturing activity is shifting, and we’re watching an “inventory whip” as companies move away from "just in time" to "just in case."

Other topics discussed this week:

• Infor’s user event and executive conversations on platforms, data, and AI
• Global growth concerns and the inventory whip from just in time to just in case
• EU tariff deal implications, predictability, and questions on how tariffs get executed
• HVAC price-fixing lawsuit as a warning signal for market data sharing and pricing models
• M&A surge in distribution and the belief that scale helps weather volatility
• AI executive order delays, state-by-state regulation risk, and why that becomes a mess for multi-state operators
• Platform-first AI strategy, extensibility, and avoiding fragmented tools and fragmented data
• Robotics moving from novelty to real productivity and what it could mean in warehouses
• Grainger’s e-commerce performance, private label leverage, and what it signals for B2B competition
• Customer service as a loyalty driver, plus the current reality of bots that frustrate already-frustrated customers

Subscribe, share the episode with a teammate, and leave a review so more wholesale distribution and manufacturing leaders can find the conversation.

Leave a Review: Help us grow by sharing your thoughts on the show.

Learn more about the LeadSmart AI B2B Sales Platform: https://www.leadsmarttech.com/

Join the conversation each week on LinkedIn Live.

Want even more insight to the stories we discuss each week? Subscribe to the Around The Horn Newsletter.

You can also hear the podcast and other excellent content on our YouTube Channel.

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or TikTok.