The World Is Changing Faster Than Markets Can Process
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More than a decade ago, I wrote a story called "Is Alpha Dead?" The premise was simple: Markets had become so competitive, so efficient, and so crowded that generating excess returns was getting harder and harder.
Andre Perold, CIO of HighVista Strategies, was one of the people I interviewed for that piece.
So I was curious how he thinks about the question today.
Perold argues that we're living through a period of such rapid technological and economic change that opportunities for alpha may actually be expanding. In a world shaped by artificial intelligence, breakthroughs in healthcare, and shifting business models, markets don't always adapt as quickly as investors assume.
As Perold says, “the ability to get an edge is much greater when new things are happening, for better or worse. You can see things, understand things, and react more easily in this new world.”
That doesn't mean alpha is easy to find. Perold has always believed investors need to look in what he calls "beautifully inefficient" markets, smaller corners of the investing world where size, specialization, and human behavior still create opportunities. That may be more important than ever.
We talked about biotech, small buyouts, risk, the real definition of a mistake, diversification, and why some of the most interesting investors are what he calls "small geniuses" operating far from Wall Street's spotlight until great performance attracts more capital and the search for the next small genius begins again.
We also discussed a topic that feels particularly relevant today: why networks (of people) still matter. At a time when we’re swimming in information and AI-generated stories about that information, Perold believes the edge comes from long relationships with people whose judgment you trust, and who help you see opportunities and risks that aren't obvious from the data and endless crunching of it. And data won't introduce you to that next great investor. Take a walk and listen to my conversation with Andre.